WSJ — Federal Reserve Charts — Heritage Foundation Center For Data Analysis – DOL Stats
Talk about Lipstick on a Pig! One would expect more out of the WSJ! I should start reading the Huffington Post for economic news. Blowing smoke is more like it… It is becoming more apparent each day the American media is losing all credibility. Foreign sourced newspapers are becoming much better reading material to find out what is really going on in our own country.
I wonder what the below WSJ article title would have been if President Bush was still in office? Look at the charts below and form your own opinion.
Update: Added Below Docstoc Link 7:27 pm 8/1/09
DOC/BEA: NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: SECOND QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)COMPREHENSIVE REVISION: 1929 THROUGH FIRST QUARTER 2009
WHY DIDN’T THE AMERICAN MEDIA NOT REPORT THIS YESTERDAY?
I KNEW SOMETHING WAS UP WITH THE #s — LuckyBogey was not born yesterday!
The government plans big revisions to historical economic data… See Page 5 of above DOC/BEA.
By JEFF BATER and BRIAN BLACKSTONE (Emphasis mine)
July 31, 2009
WASHINGTON — The U.S. recession appears to be near an end, government figures suggest, even as revisions to prior years’ data show that the downturn has been even more severe than previously thought.
Gross domestic product fell at a seasonally adjusted 1.0% annual rate April through June, the U.S. Commerce Department said Friday in the first estimate of second-quarter GDP. That was better than the 1.5% decline Wall Street economists had expected.
GDP fell 6.4% in the first quarter and 5.4% in the fourth quarter, at the pit of the recession. The third quarter of last year was revised to show a much sharper drop than first estimated. The numbers were revised as part of the government benchmark revision to data going back several decades.
GDP has now fallen four-consecutive quarters, the first time that has happened since quarterly records began being kept in 1947.
But with the pace of decline waning, “the worst recession since the Great Depression is likely coming to an end,” said Sung Won Sohn, a professor at California State University.
The main engine of the economy, consumer spending, surprisingly fell last quarter. Job fears and stagnant wages appear to be keeping wallets tight, and are seen muting the economy’s expected recovery in the second half of 2009.
What limited the rate of contraction were much smaller declines in exports and business spending. Also, inventory liquidation took less of a bite out of the economy; company replenishing of goods should boost output going forward.
The recession began in December 2007, according to the semi-official arbiter, the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. The nonprofit research group uses a broader definition of a recession than do many economists, including industrial production and employment. Another popular definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of a shrinking GDP.
Economists expect a rise in GDP starting this quarter, suggesting the recession is at or near its end.
“We’re going to expect to see growth in the economy in the second part of this year,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a town-hall meeting Sunday that was sponsored by the Public Broadcasting Service.
A couple of reports on the economy this week bolstered that case. New-home sales rose a fourth time in six months during June as buyers jumped to take advantage of fallen prices for property. Durable-goods orders fell for the month, but orders outside of transportation rose and a gauge of capital spending by businesses climbed.
Friday’s report showed inventory liquidation subtracted less from GDP in the second quarter than it did in the first quarter, 0.83 of a percentage point versus 2.36 percentage points. Economists think companies — including auto makers amid signs that the government’s cash-for-clunkers program is an early success — will have to restock soon as consumption stabilizes.
“The fact that inventories were still falling in the second quarter raises the odds that they [will] add a huge amount to GDP’s plus-column in the third quarter,” said Chris Rupkey, economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.
Real final sales of domestic product, which is GDP less the change in private inventories, decreased at only a 0.2% annual rate last quarter, a big improvement from the first quarter’s 4.1% slump.
Business spending dropped by 8.9%, after plunging 39.2% in the first quarter. Investment in structures fell 8.9%. Equipment and software spending slid by 9.0%.
About 70% of GDP is made up of consumer spending, which fell 1.2% from April through June, after increasing 0.6% in the first quarter.
Rising unemployment and more precautionary saving will likely keep a lid on spending — and the economy — in the second half of this year. Mr. Bernanke said during Sunday’s town-hall meeting that he expects GDP to rise only 1%, at an annual rate, in the second half, a rate that is insufficient to prevent further increases in unemployment.
Trade acted as a boost to GDP in the second quarter, adding 1.38 percentage points. U.S. exports fell by 7.0% and imports decreased 15.1%.
Residential fixed investment, which includes spending on housing, plunged by 29.3%, after dropping 38.2% in the first quarter — demonstrating that the slump in housing continued to take a toll on the overall economy.
Spending by the federal government in the second quarter rose 10.9%, after declining 4.3% in the first quarter.
Inflation remained under wraps. The government’s price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, climbed 1.3% after falling 1.5% in the first quarter. The PCE price gauge excluding food and energy rose 2.0%, after increasing 1.1% in the first quarter.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said compensation costs advanced just 0.4% on a quarterly basis between April and June. The 1.8% 12-month rise was the smallest on record, a sign that rising unemployment is taking a toll on paychecks.
SELECTED MEASURES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAMS
In June, the percentages of the unemployed who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks and for 5–14 weeks fell; the percentages for 15–26 weeks and for 27 weeks and over rose. The mean duration of unemployment rose to 24.5 weeks and the median duration rose to 17.9 weeks.
In the first quarter of 2009, according to revised estimates, corporate profits before tax rose $157.2 billion (annual rate) and profits after tax rose $123.0 billion.
BUSINESS SALES AND INVENTORIES—Manufacturing and Trade
In April, according to current estimates, manufacturing and trade sales fell 0.4 percent and inventories fell $16.6 billion. According to advance estimates, retail sales rose 0.5 percent in May. Retail and food services sales also rose 0.5 percent.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production and capacity utilization fell in May.
Chart 1 shows the seasonally adjusted change month over month in the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), and the Producer Price Index (PPI). CPI-U measures how much in constant dollars urban consumers are paying for the goods and services they buy. Investment items, life insurance, and collectibles are excluded from CPI-U. Chart 1 also tracks seasonally adjusted changes in the Producer Price Index (PPI). PPI measures the average amount in constant dollars producers of goods and services in the U.S. are receiving for their output. Chart 1 shows PPI for all finished goods.
Corporate bonds are sold by corporations to provide them with operating cash that they later pay back with interest to the buyers of the bonds. Moody’s Investors Service is an independent company that issues ratings for corporate issuers of bonds. The highest rated corporations receive an Aaa rating. An Aaa rating means that Moody’s rates a company safer than any other rating it gives to pay investors in its corporate bonds back. The slightly lower Moody’s credit rating of baa means that Moody’s rates a company receiving a baa rating as more likely to default on their corporate bonds sold to investors. A company defaults on its corporate bonds if it goes out of business, and the remaining assets when sold do not raise enough money to pay the corporate bond holders back. An Aaa company can pay less interest on its bonds because there is less perceived risk of it defaulting on the loan. Chart 2 shows the percentage point spread between Aaa rated corporate bonds and baa rated corporate bonds. When there is a wide spread, it generally means that many corporations are thought of by investors as being in danger of going out of business.
Chart 3 tracks the number of initial weekly jobless claims. This is the number, in a week, of first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Initial weekly jobless claims is a lagging indicator, which means it starts to rise after a recession is already underway, and does not recede until the economy has already started to recover.
This chart shows the monthly percentage of the labor force that has been unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. Short-term unemployment frequently occurs in strongly growing economies, but growth in the long-term rate indicates economic contraction.
Industrial production decreased 0.4 percent in June after having fallen 1.2 percent in May. For the second quarter as a whole, output fell at an annual rate of 11.6 percent, a more moderate contraction than in the first quarter, when output fell 19.1 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 0.6 percent in June, with declines at both durable and nondurable goods producers. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 0.5 percent in June, and the output of utilities increased 0.8 percent. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined in June to 68.0 percent, a level 12.9 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982.
The production of consumer goods declined 0.3 percent in June. The output of consumer durables fell 1.0 percent; this index decreased 6.8 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter, a substantially smaller decline than the decrease of 40.7 percent in the first quarter. Within consumer durables, the indexes for automotive products; appliances, furniture, and carpeting; and home electronics all fell in June; the index for miscellaneous durable goods posted a small increase. The output of consumer nondurable goods edged down 0.1 percent: Higher production of energy products was more than offset by widespread declines in the output of other products. For the second quarter as a whole, the output of non-energy nondurable goods decreased 3.4 percent (annual rate) after having fallen 5.6 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter.
The output of business equipment fell 0.8 percent in June. The production of industrial and other equipment and of information processing equipment declined, while the output of transit equipment was unchanged. In the second quarter, industrial and other equipment and information processing equipment both declined at rates similar to those posted in the first quarter. Transit equipment fell in the second quarter after having increased substantially in the first quarter, when the output of aircraft rebounded from a strike. The output of defense and space equipment increased 0.8 percent in June, and the index rose at an annual rate of 2.0 percent for the second quarter as a whole.
The production of construction supplies edged down 0.2 percent in June; this index fell 15.3 percent (annual rate) in the second quarter after having dropped 34.0 percent (annual rate) in the first quarter. The output of business supplies rose 0.1 percent in June but declined 11.3 percent (annual rate) for the second quarter as a whole. The output of materials fell 0.6 percent in June, and each of its major components–durable, nondurable, and energy materials–registered declines. Among durable materials, output dropped for consumer parts and equipment parts, while among nondurables, the indexes for both paper materials and chemical materials decreased.
Production in manufacturing fell 0.6 percent in June after having dropped 1.1 percent in May. The factory operating rate declined further in June to a historical low of 64.6 percent; prior to this recession, the low for this series, which begins in 1948, was 68.6 percent in December 1982. For the second quarter as a whole, manufacturing output fell at an annual rate of 10.5 percent, a decline that was about one-half the rate of decrease recorded in the first quarter. Production of durable goods fell 0.7 percent in June: The indexes for machinery; computer and electronic products; electrical equipment, appliances, and components; and motor vehicles and parts all posted decreases of more than 1 percent. Output increased for several industries, most notably for wood products, primary metals, and miscellaneous manufacturing. The gain of 1.7 percent for primary metals follows 10 consecutive monthly decreases for the industry. The output of nondurable goods fell 0.4 percent: Declines in the indexes for food, beverage, and tobacco products; apparel and leather; paper; and chemicals were only partly offset by increases in the indexes for printing and support, petroleum and coal products, and plastics and rubber products.
The index for other manufacturing industries (non-NAICS), which consists of publishing and logging, decreased 0.5 percent in June.
The output of electric and gas utilities increased 0.8 percent in June, and the operating rate for utilities moved up 0.5 percentage point, to 79.7 percent. Mining production fell 0.5 percent, and capacity utilization in this industry edged down to 81.0 percent, a rate 6.6 percentage points below its 1972-2008 average.
Capacity utilization rates in June at industries grouped by stage of process were as follows: At the crude stage, utilization fell 0.6 percentage point, to 77.5 percent, a rate 9.1 percentage points below its 1972-2008 average; at the primary and semifinished stages, utilization increased 0.1 percentage point, to 65.8 percent, a rate 16.2 percentage points below its long-run average; and at the finished stage, utilization decreased 0.4 percentage point, to 66.6 percent, a rate 11.1 percentage points below its long-run average.
Note. The statistics in this release cover output, capacity, and capacity utilization in the U.S. industrial sector, which is defined by the Federal Reserve to comprise manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities. Mining is defined as all industries in sector 21 of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); electric and gas utilities are those in NAICS sectors 2211 and 2212. Manufacturing comprises NAICS manufacturing industries (sector 31-33) plus the logging industry and the newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishing industries. Logging and publishing are classified elsewhere in NAICS (under agriculture and information respectively), but historically they were considered to be manufacturing and were included in the industrial sector under the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. In December 2002 the Federal Reserve reclassified all its industrial output data from the SIC system to NAICS.
For release at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time; July 30, 2009
The Board’s H.3 statistical release, “Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base,” has been modified to incorporate a loan restructuring adjustment associated with the credit extended to American International Group, Inc. (AIG).
The credit extended to AIG is listed in table 1a and has been renamed “Credit extended to American International Group, Inc., net.” Footnote 3, which is related to the credit extension, clarifies that the loan is reported net of the unamortized commitment fees and is now reported net of the adjustment for the loan restructuring.
|Date||Reserves of depository institutions||Monetary base5||Total borrowings from the Federal Reserve, NSA|
|Two weeks ending7|
|Jun 3, 2009||896119||398436||57623||838496||1765227||497684|
|Jun 17, 2009||848622||390382||56819||791802||1720110||458240|
|Jul 1, 2009||746273||342176||58531||687742||1618580||404097|
|Jul 15, 2009||805773||417944||61912||743861||1673835||387829|
|Jul 29, 2009 p||792177||444960||63334||728843||1663951||347217|
1. Reserves and monetary base figures incorporate adjustments for discontinuities, or “breaks,” associated with regulatory changes in reserve requirements. (For more information, refer to table 3.)
2. Seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted total reserves equal seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted required reserves plus unadjusted excess reserves. (Also, refer to footnote 2 in table 2 and footnote 2 in table 3.)
3. Seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted nonborrowed reserves equal seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted total reserves less unadjusted total borrowings from the Federal Reserve.
4. Excess reserves NSA equals unadjusted total reserves (table 2, column 1) less unadjusted required reserves (table 2, column 3).
5. The seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted monetary base consists of (1) seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted total reserves plus (2) the seasonally adjusted currency component of the money stock plus (3), for all quarterly reporters on the “Report of Transaction Accounts, Other Deposits and Vault Cash” and for all those weekly reporters whose vault cash exceeds their required reserves, the seasonally adjusted, break-adjusted difference between current vault cash and the amount applied to satisfy current reserve requirements. (Also, refer to footnote 3 in table 2 and footnote 4 in table 3.)
6. Prorated averages of biweekly averages.
7. Averages of daily figures.
|Date||Reserves of depository institutions||Monetary base1|
|Two weeks ending6|
|Jun 17, 2009||846836||388596||55034||1718519|
|Jul 1, 2009||749426||345329||61684||1617892|
|Jul 15, 2009||803119||415291||59258||1677198|
|Jul 29, 2009 p||797076||449859||68233||1665954|
Note: Current and historical H.3 data are available each week on the Federal Reserve Board’s website (http://www.federalreserve.gov/). Monthly data are available back to January 1959, and weekly data are available back to January 1975 for most series. For information about individual copies or subscriptions, contact Publications Services at the Federal Reserve Board (phone 202-452-3245, fax 202-728-5886). For paid electronic access to current and historical data, call STAT-USA at 1-800-782-8872 or 202-482-1986.
1. Figures reflect adjustments for discontinuities, or “breaks,” associated with regulatory changes in reserve requirements.
2. Break-adjusted total reserves equal break-adjusted required reserves (table 3, column 3) plus excess reserves NSA (table 1, column 4).
3. To adjust required reserves for discontinuities due to regulatory changes in reserve requirements, a multiplicative procedure is used to estimate what required reserves would have been in past periods had current reserve requirements been in effect. Break-adjusted required reserves are equal to break-adjusted required reserves against transactions deposits.
4. The break-adjusted monetary base equals (1) break-adjusted total reserves plus (2) the (unadjusted) currency component of the money stock plus (3), for all quarterly reporters on the “Report of Transaction Accounts, Other Deposits and Vault Cash” and for all those weekly reporters whose vault cash exceeds their required reserves, the break-adjusted difference between current vault cash and the amount applied to satisfy current reserve requirements.
5. Prorated averages of biweekly averages.
6. Averages of daily figures.
MANUFACTURERS’ SHIPMENTS, INVENTORIES, AND ORDERS
In May, manufacturers’ shipments, inventories, and unfilled orders fell; while new orders rose.
Statistics & Historical Data
Federal Reserve statistical releases and historical data have been divided into two pages: Statistics and Historical Data and Surveys and Reports. This page now also includes links to data previously published as part of the discontinued Statistical Supplement.
LA Times: California’s default rate soars to 9.5%
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DOC/BEA: NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: SECOND QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)COMPREHENSIVE REVISION: 1929 THROUGH FIRST QUARTER 2009
Updates: Added Docstoc Link to Dept of Commerce/BEA data.