Obama Admin. Says “Nothing Is Possible” To Help Struggling Economy As Jobless Claims Hit Nine-Month High, Employers “Scared To Death”; Gop Listening And Offering Better Solutions
With President Obama set to take off for Martha’s Vineyard in a matter of hours, the Obama Administration says “NOTHING IS POSSIBLE” (their caps, not ours) to help an economy showing new signs of job losses and employer uncertainty. (Now, this is a peculiar admission coming from a White House that is also saying, despite his vacation, that the president is “working hard to do everything possible to get this economy back on the right track…,” but mixed messages can be a problem for those folks these days.)
Unsurprisingly, the White House also told POLITICO Playbook it would “love to back additional stimulus,” but outside of that, “RIGHT NOW, NOTHING IS POSSIBLE…” to get our economy moving again. There you have it: the American people are asking ‘where are the jobs?’ and all Washington Democrats have to offer is more of the same failing ‘stimulus’ policies. How’s that been working out? Well, here’s how things are going a little more than two weeks after the Treasury Secretary declared “welcome to the recovery” in The New York Times:
The government reported this morning that jobless claim filings rose to their highest levels in nine months, “yet another setback” and a “sign that employers are cutting jobs again.” Welcome to the reality…
Townhall – By Ross Mackenzie
Recent quotations on the economy that may not put you to sleep….
President Obama: “All of us should be worried about the fact that we have been running the credit card in the name of future generations. We’ve got to get our debt and our deficits under control. That’s going to be our project for the next couple of years.”
Carnegie Mellon University economics Professor Allan Meltzer: “The administration’s stimulus program has failed. Growth is slow and unemployment remains high. The president, his friends and advisers talk endlessly about the circumstances they inherited as a way of avoiding responsibility for the 18 months for which they are responsible. But they want new stimulus measures — which is convincing evidence that they too recognize that the earlier measures failed. And so the U.S. was odd-man out at the G-20 meeting…,continuing to call for more government spending in the face of European resistance.”
Washington Post economics columnist Robert Samuelson: “What we’re seeing in Greece is the death spiral of the welfare state….Virtually every advanced nation, including the United States, faces the same prospect. Aging populations have been promised huge health and retirement benefits, which countries haven’t fully covered with taxes. The reckoning has arrived in Greece, but it awaits most wealthy societies.”
Nobel economist Gary Becker, a founder (with Milton Friedman) of the Chicago school of economics: “This belief in individual responsibility — the belief that people ought to be free to make their own decisions, but should then bear the consequences of those decisions — this remains very powerful. The American people don’t want an expansion of government. They want more of what (Ronald) Reagan provided. They want limited government and economic growth. I expect them to say so in the elections this November.”…]
CBO Director’s Blog – August 19, 2010
CBO estimates, in its annual summer update of the budget and economic outlook, that the federal budget deficit for 2010 will exceed $1.3 trillion—$71 billion below last year’s total and $27 billion lower than the amount that CBO projected in March 2010 when it issued its previous estimate.
Relative to the size of the economy, this year’s deficit is expected to be the second largest shortfall in the past 65 years: At 9.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), it is exceeded only by last year’s deficit of 9.9 percent of GDP. As was the case last year, this year’s deficit is attributable in large part to a combination of weak revenues and elevated spending associated with the economic downturn and the policies implemented in response to it.
This report presents CBO’s updated budget and economic projections spanning the 2010–2020 period. Those projections reflect the assumption that current laws affecting the budget will remain unchanged—and thus the projections serve as a neutral benchmark that lawmakers can use to assess the potential effects of policy decisions.
As such, CBO assumes that tax reductions enacted earlier in this decade that are currently set to expire at the end of this year do so as scheduled; it also assumes that no new legislation aimed at keeping the alternative minimum tax (AMT) from affecting many more taxpayers is enacted.
In addition, CBO assumes that the measures enacted in the past two years to provide fiscal stimulus to the weakened economy will expire as currently scheduled and that future annual appropriations will be kept constant in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Under those assumptions, the federal budget deficit would decline substantially over the next two years—to 4.2 percent of GDP in 2012—and, consequently, the budget would provide much less support to the economy than has been the case for the past two years.
According to CBO’s projections, the recovery from the economic downturn will continue at a modest pace during the next few years. Growth in the nation’s output since the middle of calendar year 2009 has been anemic in comparison with that of previous recoveries following deep recessions, and the unemployment rate has remained quite high, averaging 9.7 percent in the first half of this year.
Such weak growth is typical in the aftermath of a financial crisis. The considerable number of vacant houses and underused factories and offices will be a continuing drag on residential construction and business investment, and slow income growth as well as lost wealth will restrain consumer spending.
All of those forces, along with the waning of federal fiscal support, will tend to restrain spending by individuals and businesses—and, therefore, economic growth—during the recovery. CBO projects that the economy will grow by only 2.0 percent from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2011; even with faster growth in subsequent years, the unemployment rate will not fall to around 5 percent until 2014.
In CBO’s current-law projections, once the economy has recovered, the federal budget deficit amounts to between 2.5 percent and 3.0 percent of GDP from 2014 to 2020. Projected deficits total $6.2 trillion for the 10 years starting in 2011, raising federal debt held by the public to more than 69 percent by 2020, almost double the 36 percent of GDP observed at the end of 2007.
Those projections, which are similar in many respects to the ones that CBO prepared in March, reflect assumptions about spending and revenues that may significantly underestimate actual deficits. Because the projections presume no changes in current tax laws, they result in estimates of revenues that, as a percentage of GDP, would be quite high by historical standards.
Because of the assumption that future annual appropriations are held constant in real terms, the projections yield estimates of discretionary spending relative to GDP that would be low by historical standards. Of course, many other outcomes are possible. If, for example, the tax reductions enacted earlier in the decade were continued, the AMT was indexed for inflation, and future annual appropriations remained the share of GDP that they are this year, the deficit in 2020 would equal about 8 percent of GDP, and debt held by the public would total nearly 100 percent of GDP.
A different fiscal policy would also yield different economic outcomes. For example, CBO estimates that under an alternative fiscal path similar to the one mentioned above, real growth of GDP in 2011 would be 0.6 to 1.7 percentage points higher than it is in the baseline forecast, and the unemployment rate at the end of 2011 would be 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points lower. However, later in the coming decade, real GDP would fall below the level in CBO’s baseline because the larger budget deficits would reduce investment in productive capital.
Beyond the 10-year budget window, the nation will face daunting long-term fiscal challenges posed by rising costs for health care and the aging of the population. Continued large deficits and the resulting increases in federal debt over time would reduce long-term economic growth.
Putting the nation on a sustainable fiscal course will require policymakers to restrain the growth of spending substantially, raise revenues significantly above their average percentage of GDP of the past 40 years, or adopt some combination of those approaches.
Related Previous Posts:
The Heritage Foundation: The Economic Freedom Act: Economic and Fiscal Effects
Ludwig von Mises Institute: The Danger Not Over
HOTAIR (Capt Ed): Dem strategists to candidates: Walk away from Obama
American Thinker: Economy Needs Heart Transplant, Obama Offering Band-Aid
Updated GOP Leader Article, Added Related Links and Police Video (h/t Commenter “Rocks” @ HA) – end