Ice – BEA Weather Pre-Analysis


Don’t know if this guy is “off his rocker” or maybe on to something…  In any investigation, you must think outside the box.  Now if Boeing has this on its new airplanes, this could be a reason for BEA/Air France trying to keep the “weather angle” low key?  This whole accident will come down to Air France’s economic priorities or shall we say their “cost cutting” priorities  in the manufacture and flight operations of their state owned airline.  Why do “composite” materials continue to surface in this investigation?



Airbus was sentenced to a cold death

MKRU – Inga Kumskova 15.06.09 14:53 (English Translation)(Emphasis mine)

The loss of aircraft A-330 was only a matter of time – a conclusion reached by a Russian specialist in the field of aircraft icing Igor Levin. This disappointing conclusion he did is based on available information on the fate of Flight 447 Rio de Janeiro and Paris. Mr. Levin explained his views in an interview with “MK”.

In examining the circumstances of the tragedy over the Atlantic, various experts have repeatedly said that the aircraft could have lost control due to icing, and the pitot is responsible for reading the speed of the aircraft, Igor Levin said. – This shows only one thing: ice covered the entire plane.

How did you come to this conclusion? We know that before the collapse of A-330 in the storm zone the temperature outside was minus 50 degrees. Meteorologists reported that strong winds could lift water from the ocean surface to an altitude of aircraft movements, where it is instantly turned to ice. And at a high speed, ice simply adheres to the hull of the aircraft, and this leads to the fact that it becomes unmanageable.

But the aircraft must have a special system to prevent icing… I know that installed on the Airbus heating system protects them only at low altitude, such as during takeoff or landing, where the temperature does not handle 30 degrees below zero. It is believed that the ice at high altitude is not possible because of the lack of clouds. But in such conditions, which got A-330 at an altitude of 10 thousand meters, a thermal system led to this tragedy.

What happens to air during the ice? When the wing and stabilizer are covered with ice, the profile of the aircraft ceases to carry aerodynamics. Airplane crashes. One case is described in all textbooks for pilots: building the aircraft, which flew the Government of the USSR, became covered with ice at high altitudes where the air temperature was about minus 45 degrees and the thermal system to protect it, only at a temperature of minus 30.

In that case, the pilots managed to save the plane. After this, temperature range of heating was decided to expand to -50 °. Foreign airliners still have an old heating system. It’s rare, but can lead to tragedy in the air.

One of the confirmed cases – the recent crash of an aircraft in the skies over Buffalo, USA. Found in the place of the collapse of the “black box” recorded the dialogue with the captain of the ship stewardess. He said: “Look at the wings, they have ice.” After 3 minutes the aircraft crashed. The pilot did not have time to manage and could do nothing.

Is the company producing the aircraft were not aware of this danger? I personally have met with the leadership of Airbus and told them about these suspicions. They nodded and replied: “That can happen only in 5 cases out of 100, so changing the thermal system is impractical.”

And the law allows to prevent such fatal errors? Yes, thermal heating system into the existing European standards. After all, its developers have their own lobby in the so-called European registry, which specifies the technical characteristics of the aircraft.

They are inefficient, the temperature range should be changed, however, because heating of the aircraft at a lower temperature would lead to a great power. Here they are, and convince the drafters of the register does not change the existing rules. It operates and Belgian company Sonaka, which makes thermal systems for the Airbus. In conversation with representatives of this company, I said that the thermal system is dangerous, planes will fall, as they are, I replied: “Well, do not fall the same.”

Why have such respectable companies such as Airbus, been slow to replace the existing heating system to be more secure? The thing is that they are very few alternatives. Only switching system may serve as a good substitute. But not all are ready to install. So far, only Boeing has established a system for the pulsed tail. I hope that in future other companies would follow suit.

A switching system is better than the heat? Even with heating the aircraft body at a temperature of minus 30 degrees thermal systems use the whole 10% of the energy plane. That means for heating the aircraft at a lower temperature it would need even more energy. And its just nowhere to take: the engine is also need food. A switching system does not require such energy at higher temperature range.

Replacing pitot will not improve the situation? It is necessary to change the whole system. De-icing of the sensor planes are not falling. They are losing control in the first instance of icing of wings and vertical stabilizer.


Aircraft de-icing and anti-ice systems (English Translation)(Emphasis mine)

According to the leading Western experts in 2005 EIPOS became the first top-two anti-icing systems in the world.

MOSCOW WEDNESDAY Number 15 May, 2006

Igor A. Levin, chief designer of the company. For many years he worked in the aircraft, saving the aircraft from icing. If the wings are covered with ice, the machine will fall.



FLIGHT AF447 BEA Preliminary analysis of meteorological conditions

Le Bourget, 6th June 2009 – Conclusions at this stage

  • The general conditions in the Atlantic ITCZ are consistent with climatology for June. The ITCZ is marked by the development of powerful cumulonimbus and clusters that are typical of the zone.
  • The infrared images taken every 15 minutes by the geostationary satellites constitute the most relevant source of information to document the evolution of convective clusters and assess if they are of an exceptional nature or not.
  • The preliminary analysis of Meteosat imagery shows the existence of a powerful cluster in the vicinity of the planned aircraft trajectory. Around 2h UTC this cluster had started to decrease in intensity.
  • This analysis of infrared imagery does not allow to conclude to the exceptional nature of this cluster or to the exceptional intensity of convective activity that prevailed in the ITCZ area.




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An edited audio transcript of the conversations between air traffic control and the cockpit of Continental Connection Flight 3407 operated by Colgan Air, which crashed near Buffalo NY on Feb. 12, 2009


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