The disaster will be long mystery

Krzysztof Parulski, the chief military prosecutor – Disclosure of record cockpit conversations with Presidential TU-154 is a future and uncertain event.

Record conversations pilots – saved on one of the three black boxes, DVR talks – is a key witness in the investigation of the crash near Smolensk, where the April 10 presidential couple was killed, politicians, generals, including 96 people. Recordings combined with data from mailboxes recording flight parameters explain the behavior of the crew, pilots’ decisions. Show what information pilots get from the airport Siewiernyj. They may also indicate whether the master has not been pressured to land in atrocious weather conditions (not yet heard the denial of this hypothesis).A week ago, Attorney General Andrew Seremet announced publicly that the recording of conversations from the cockpit of the Tu-154 will be disclosed. Declared that he wanted the prosecutor “to maintain maximum transparency” investigation after the disaster. Seremet Tuesday announced that Poland will soon get a preliminary analysis of records of call recorder – probably written transcripts. Reserved its decision on disclosure of this document will take the public prosecutor.900 hours of analysis?Yesterday the Chief Military Prosecutor Christopher Parulski poured on journalists and opinion leaders, expecting a quick explanation of the tragedy at Smolensk, a bucket of cold water. He stressed that tests must finish first in his quest to the Russians. Our prosecutors with an analysis of all relevant evidence – especially black boxes, debris from an airplane – they must wait for the formal transfer of the Russians.

Preliminary analysis of records of black boxes – found Seremet – could come “within two weeks.” But the decision whether to go public with the delayed recordings. Because you will need to wait for such an electronic copy of their (and not on paper transcripts), which can be subjected to analysis, voiceprint analysis (eg, cleaning of the noise). Only then the prosecutor will decide whether the pilots of the interviews will be given to the public.

When did it happen? – Journalists inquired yesterday. No date has not fallen. Because I do not know when we will provide appropriate proof of the Russian prosecutor’s office. And also, how many experts will take work. It is known that the recording of the cockpit is not clear, noisy, and that the “identification of votes has not been completed.” The former process, a Member of the PO Beata Sawicka, we know that the purification and development of two minutes a very vague statutory recording takes 60 hours. As recorded in the cockpit – which revealed a previously Gazeta Col. Zbigniew Turnip – The last 30 minutes. Let’s calculate: 900 hours of work of experts is about 100 days of work.

The prosecutor did not withdraw Seremet yesterday with the declaration of disclosure, but once again reserved – Prosecutors will decide in due course.

Colonel Parulski repeated: – You need to have primarily in mind the good of the investigation. I would not lead to situations that are given partial information which may affect its course. The most I spoke to the disclosure after the inquiry.

The most important questions we can not know the answer until the end of the matter.

Yesterday, the second in this week’s press conference, information was again as in medicine.

Silent about the reasons for the prosecution

Prosecutors did not answer the question, which could indicate the cause of the disaster. “The newspaper even called for a dementowanie hypotheses such as a terrorist attack using a pulsed electromagnetic jamming operation onboard the aircraft. Prok. Seremet replied: – Some hypotheses have such a degree of fantasy that reasonable people we will remove them.

Parulski added, however: – We will not extinguish any ideas. We examine each important clue. The Russian Prosecutor’s Office conducted a study for the presence of explosive remnants of the plane and initially ruled out their use.

Chief Military Prosecutor also confirmed that it asked the Russians to check what changes in your airport Siewiernyj were between 5 and 15 April. The aim is to remove the allegedly better than the guidance system for aircraft beacons after the visit of Prime Minister Putin in Smolensk and the exchange of light after the presidential Tupolev crash.

The Russians also examine the first film shown on the Internet, and then in the Russian television channels, which can hear echoes of some shots. It may burst ammunition magazines with members of the BOR-u? Parulski not ruled out. With the success found in the swamp to find all seven glocków BOR held by officers.

Polish have already returned to the 1.5 tons of personal effects of victims of the disaster. Today, with the latest bodies arrived too have previously collected valuables. The closest of all victims of the disaster in the quest to have the status of Polish victims. If you have registered to the prosecution, will enjoy fully all rights – and stressed Seremet and Parulski. They can participate in activities such as prosecutors, have access to the file.

Today the return of the body 21 of the victims

Body will carry NATO’s Globemaster aircraft. It has landed between 17 and 18 on Warsaw Okecie. Return to Polish: Andrzej Błasik, Edward Duchnowski, Grazyna Gęsicka, Kazimierz Gilarski, Robert Fine, Mariusz Handzlik, Natalia Januszko, Andrew Karweta, Janusz Krupski, Bronislaw Kwiatkowski, Tadeusz Lutoborski, Andrew Michalak, Alexander Natallia-World, Vladimir Potasiński, Arkadiusz Protasiuk , Andrew Carrier, Arkadiusz Rybicki, Wieslaw Water, Edward Wojtas, Stanislaw Zajac, Arthur Ziętek.

Identification of the victims on the basis of DNA testing completed yesterday. From Wednesday in Moscow, former Minister of Health Ewa Kopacz patomorfologami and experts from the Central Laboratory Criminalistics. Minister Kopacz, yesterday after work clearly tired, assured journalists from Moscow morgue that Russian experts without complaint to comply with their obligations. – Our geneticists, anthropologists, court physicians, forensic technicians verify the information included in the protocols. There is no mistake – she said Kopacz.

It regards the cooperation of Poles and Russians settled itself perfectly. – If the specialists come to us from another country to control what we do, we look at his hands, will surely podchodzilibyśmy to them with some bias. Here it lasted even an hour. And then the Poles and Russians together steel at a table, working as equal. Sometimes the Russians our highly praised, our time – the Russians. Impressed each other. The activities are coordinated. If you say that something will be 15, it was the 15th Any postponement, witchcraft. The agreement – the holy word. Full liability – the minister stressed.

Employee Moscow dissecting room, with whom I talked after the departure of Polish minister also praised the Poles, and especially their szefującą Kopacz: – Energetic, organized. Born “commander” [commander] – said.

According to information from the government that have all the crash victims’ families were given assistance grants – 40 thousand. zł. – Today the Prime Minister has decided to sign the special pensions for children victims of the disaster – said, “Gazeta” Minister Michał Boni, head of Prime Minister’s advisers.

Annuities – about 1.5 thousand. zł net – get to finish learning all the children in a number of up to 18 years, children with disabilities (regardless of age) and possibly also that parents are not working. Will be paid by Social Security since May. The Government is also exploring the special scholarships for children of victims of the disaster.

Source: Gazeta Wyborcza (Original Link)(Polish)


Presidential plane did not fall at 8:56

wiadomosci.onet.p (English Translation)

“Official Legal Newspaper,” carried out a study, which shows that the presidential Tupolev Tu-154 crashed at the airport in Smolensk a bit earlier than previously reported. Russian Polsat News correspondent Viktor Bater says that the phone about problems with the landing, has already received about 8:49. The moment of the disaster taken 8:56 minutes.

“DGP” writes that Polish time is 8:56 hours, the sirens sounded the alarm at the airport Siewiernyj. Caller newspaper, an expert working on the analysis of black boxes believes that the disaster could have been even ten minutes earlier.

Indicate that at least another two pieces of information. About 8:39 was broken power line near the airport. Photos show that broke it was already very low flying Tu-154. Ten minutes later, information about the crash has already received phone Wiktor Bater, Polsat News correspondent.

Original Link (Polish)



Thomas Pietrzak: Tupolev had flanged warning system (TAWS)

Dzisiaj, 22 kwietnia (08:02) Today, April 22 (08:02)

Procedure prohibits the use of TAWS system at the airport in Smolensk – Counter guy says RMF FM pilot Col. Thomas Pietrzak. It is inconceivable that the airplane was in a place so low. Tupoley and how long should get for scrap – he adds. Planes of this type have long been withdrawn from Western Europe and even Russia. Machines that we use do not meet the criteria – he said.

Konrad Piasecki: Sir, what is your greatest mystery, the biggest unknown of the flight on April 10?

Thomas Pietrzak: The whole situation, that the plane was at that time, in this place, under such conditions and did not end the sum total of take-offs landings.

Konrad Piasecki: How is it possible that a kilometer before the Tupolev belt is 2.5 meters above the ground? How do you explain to yourself?

Tomasz Pietrzak : It is difficult to say, I think a big role here will be the committee which will study the accident. Rather, it is inconceivable that the airplane was at such a distance of 2.5 meters. I would not want to speculate. Hard to say.

Konrad Piasecki: Is it possible that no failures of any of the aircraft guidance systems found in this place so low?

Thomas Pietrzak: I think that this is not the only factor. Certainly there were factors that influenced the accident. I think that here only after a thorough examination of the black boxes, all these records, we can only tell you how many items are made of the fact that there has been a disaster.

Konrad Piasecki: On the semi-amateur analysis of what happened there, that was on landing approach to the jar, including the ravine aircraft was quite low and then the pilots were surprised that this area is wypiętrzał. Is it possible at the airport that they are surprised?

Thomas Pietrzak: The pilots were active at the airport earlier, came up correctly, there were no objections to them, they had good communication with the controller, but just that it is the jar on the approach, if not greater importance, since the set goes to the flight path , the threshold of the runway, keeping the amount compared with the distances from the runway threshold. So that if we combine these two elements, it should be the entire flight path is maintained and made safe landing.

Konrad Piasecki: This is how it happened that the flight path was not observed here?

Thomas Pietrzak: Hard to say, I think that the voice recorder should tell us much here, what was the conversation, talking about what some pilots, and probably there was a suggestion that.

Konrad Piasecki: And how is this famous Avoidance System, which is to warn that the area is undulating and warn pilots to be raised up, where the terrain begins to soar?

Thomas Pietrzak: This system works when the pressure is given in hektopaskalach, ie it is allocated to the level of the sea, not land. Since all the maps, the database for this system is built on the Avoidance of vertical distance from sea level, not on land, not the height of the airport, on which it is located.

Konrad Piasecki: This system worked here? They were warned by the system that this area is elevation?

Thomas Pietrzak: This system was flanged, flanged probably because both airplanes Boeing or Airbus or any other aircraft that have GWPS-y, TAWS-y, if the pressure is given QFE, do not use it because it would be wrong transmit information.

Konrad Piasecki: So they had to turn off the system?

Thomas Pietrzak: I do not know whether or not turned off. It just seems to me that the manual, which says the device – simply prohibited the use of this device, when the pressure is QFE height ie the relative height of the airport.

Konrad Piasecki: So at the airport, it was not entitled to work?

Thomas Pietrzak: On the airport, assuming that was given relative pressure, which is the amount of the airport, was probably, block – that is, according to the procedure.

Konrad Piasecki: Is this crash the result in a failure of any of the systems or may be that this is just a combination of unfortunate circumstances, and any failure was not here?

Thomas Pietrzak: I do not know, sitting here in the studio. It must be assessed by experts – just what I said at the beginning. These elements must be examined, just to determine what influenced what.

Konrad Piasecki: The fact that the pilots flew the side of the axis of the belt, this is a clue?

Thomas Pietrzak: No, because usually, if there is no precision approach, which navigates a plane flying against the course of the runway, there will always be some deviation from the prescribed line of the road – to the right or left. With imprecise approach is often the situation.

Konrad Piasecki: Seeing, hearing and observing how it has – to the point where they had a chance to get out of this? As the trees began to grapple with their fate was sealed?

Thomas Pietrzak: Hard to say. That has never practiced in the simulator, because there was no such possibility. This plane until contact between the wheels on a surface – with the belt, you may go to the second incident, because after contacting the wheels turns lock – that mechanization in the wings, which is not possible to achieve full speed and the lift to pick up the plane. For the moment, until they have been in contact with the ground wheels, able to calmly walk away to another incident.

Konrad Piasecki: Is piloting a plane from the ruling you ever heard the command, command, suggestion: “you have to land?”

Thomas Pietrzak: Conversations were always much, but always ended with a consensus. There was this situation that I have no other choice, only “I”. Will always be respected commander of the crew.

Konrad Piasecki: Do you believe that, in the case of Katyn, Smolensk, this pressure was verbal, that someone told them: “you have to land?”

Thomas Pietrzak: Hard to say. I think that the only thing we can do is wait for the voice recorder, which gives us a credible position from the cockpit of the aircraft.

Konrad Piasecki: Do you think this regiment was a special VIP delivery men should be eliminated, whether there should be next?

Thomas Pietrzak, I think that this regiment should continue to exist, but should do certain steps in this direction, that these planes were technologically nowocześniejesze. Jak podkreślam, to nie jest wina wieku samolotu, to jest wina technologii. As I emphasize, this is not the wine age of the aircraft, it is a wine technology. Many devices in modern planes would eliminate some adverse situations that hard to solve. It should not be resolved. This regiment should exist, but with the new machinery.

Konrad Piasecki: And it should not be that ruling, however, civilian pilots should carry? They can not hear the order. They can hear the suggestion, the command, but they are not subject to orders.

Thomas Pietrzak: But here, no matter whether it is civilian or military pilot. The commander, in the air, regardless of how an airplane flies – civilian or military – has the same rights and obligations, regardless of who carries.

Konrad Piasecki: A not so, that military pilot feel more pressure?

Thomas Pietrzak: No, why?

Konrad Piasecki: Because it depends on the command that he must carry out orders that the order is wkodowany him.

Thomas Pietrzak: There is no such thing. Maybe once it was in years past. There is no such thing. Pilots are trained to make decisions, evaluate the situation. They know that their role is to secure landing, or take off and landing – the sum must be correct.

Konrad Piasecki: You think that tupoley and what should hit the scrap?

Thomas Pietrzak, I thought it’s two years ago that they should get for scrap. These planes should not have to fly with our most important people in the country. However, I do not know why, is still the insistence that these aircraft are operated at all times, even now.

Konrad Piasecki: But unless a Tupolev no one ever getting onto?

Thomas Pietrzak: From what I know, even the Bulgarian government has suspended flying on this plane. Even the largest air carrier Aeroflot withdrew the aircraft from its fleet because the planes do not meet the criteria in Western Europe – just as Yak-40, Tu-154 – these planes are closed, for them no longer fly to the west.

RMF FM RMF FM (Original Link)(Polish)



Radio Chatter – International Aviation Forums

There has been one press appearance of MAK.

“MAK Investigation committee, based on black boxes data, inform that TAWS was on during the President Kachinsky flight and was not switched off.” (“Poland and Russia agreed to jointly address the producer for further clarifications.”)

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The map confirms 6.1 km outer NDB and 1.1 km inner NDB.

2.40 deg glide slope. 300m at outer, 70m at inner.

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What if they had a calculated navigating by GPS, the trajectory of decline?

И ДПРМ они не проходили? And LOM they do not pass?

Ведь над БПРМ они оказались на высоте где-то 15 м. Because of the BMB, they have risen to around 15 m.

(а это и есть рекомендуемая высота при прохождении торца ВПП) , (And this is the recommended height for the passage of runway end)

с курсовым отклонением в районе 3 град. with foreign exchange deviation in the 3 deg.

от оси ВПП – борт однозначно садился. from the runway – the side definitely sit down.

Мог штурман с 59 часами налета на ТУ-154 просто ОШИБИТСЯ в расчетах?

He could mate with 59 hours flown on a TU-154 made a mistake in the calculations? Мог вполне. Could completely.

Не зря же когда польские журналисты спросили:”Был ли у экипажа опыт посадок в СМУ?”,

No wonder that when a Polish journalist asked: “Did the crew experience landings in SMU?”

то он ушел от ответа. he balked.

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Aml writes: Question for the specialists?
According to previously published here on the forum circuit approach to the station “North”, is setting the standard in RF glide path – 2.66 (2 deg 40 min).
Far drive 6100m, the height 300. Middle drive – 1100m range, height 70m. We believe that: tan (2.66) * 6100 = 255
Does this mean that the runway threshold the aircraft must pass at a height of 45m?
tan(2.66/180*pi)*6100 = 283.4008 (this is for the edge of the runway, the height of 17 m)
tan(2.66/180*pi)*(6100-1100) = 232.2957 (is over near the height of 68 m ~ 70)

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It’s interesting to observe the location of runway thresholds, inner and outer NDB in the Google Earth. Did the crew use the runway 26 threshold raw coordinates (from the chart) with their FMS to assist with the approach? It would explain they were slightly to the south. Definitely the coordinates are not iaw WGS-84 or PZ-90.02. Did they create VNAV profile in FMS? Did they err with meters and feet, AMSL (above mean sea level), AAL (above aerodrome level) – these are some of the questions – need CVR asap.

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One can observe divergences between the true runway course indicated on the chart 266d46m and true runway course in Google Earth 266d73m. All coordinates seem to be shifted to the east by 180-300 m, but while runway threshold coordinates are shifted 30 m to the south, the inner NDB coordinates are shifted to the north by 100 m. I wonder if and what coordinates were entered to FMS by the crew?

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Smolensk explained the system at Northern aerodrome is:

  • day time – no lights
  • day time fog and other visibility problems – yes lights on
  • night time – lights on.

At that, they switch them on differently, and may be carry back and forward some, the difference is between “day time fog” mode and “night time”.

At “day time fog” – the ones in front of the runway – are positioned like open gates, and are turned towards the aircraft approaching. They are like? positioned as open gates, at an angle, widening outside. To meet the plane, and light – towards the plane.

At night time the ones in front of the runway – are turned and positioned differently – no “gates” are formed, and no light turned towards the aircraft, but all are pointed at the runway, inside.

Along the runway they have something permanent, digged in forever, and what it is in immediate approach to the runway – these are various funny buckets perched on on some beton poles, chunks, digged into the ground.

As I understood they are also in different color, green ones are solid, and the yellow ones the forum suspected like, look like improvised very much.

Anyway – whatever it was – colors at military aerodrome and the position – pointed inside or pointed outside or not switched on at all – Warsaw must have been briefed about, before the take off. It’s part of the briefing procedure when such, basically, charter flights, one off, are organized.

That the outer NDB is about 6 km from the runway threshold instead of 4 is irrelevant. I doubt such a so-called “standard” would exist in any regulation worldwide. As PJ2 explained, an approach has to be prepared using a specific chart on which all the necessary information is printed.

A possible QFE / QNH confusion appears remote since the crew was certainly “current” on the russian altimetry procedures and had a recent experience. It seems an erroneous reference pressure (QFE most probably) like an error on the next to last digit would be more consistent with the position of the first tree hit (assuming that a correct vertical speed was used).

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for dual NDB approaches in Russia, an OCH (obstacle clearance height above the threshold or the airfield elevation) is defined, typically somewhere between 90 to 150 meters (≈ 290′ to 490′), which for a typical Russian 2°40′ glideslope corresponds to about 1900 to 3200 meters of horizontal visibility. Obviously, the reported wx was not quite adequate for these minimums.

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UPDATE

Per ITAR-TASS:

“The Interstate Aviation Committee and Polish experts will jointly study the condition of the terrain awareness and warning system (TAWS) and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) on premises of the U.S. producer,”

“Judging by information from flight recorders, the TAWS system was on.”

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UPDATE II

2nd Confirmation Per INTERFAX: Polish plane had ground collision warning system on – IAC findings

Undetermined class of equipment: TAWS (Terrain Awareness and Warning System) or GPWS (Ground Proximity Warning System)??

So the crew must have been aware of altitude with synthetic voice calls and visual indications(i.e.EXCESSIVE RATE OF DESCENT) if fitted with TAWS. But not enough reaction time if equiped with older GPWS.

“This is determined by the fact that GPWS class systems are conceptually unable to provide an alert earlier than 5-30 seconds before the collision, which is not always long enough for remedying the situation. It should be noted that in some cases, e.g., during the flight over an exceptionally rugged terrain, these systems may fail to work at all.”

TAWS specs brochure (PDF)(6 PAGES)

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UPDATE III

On the last flight before crash they were landing the opposite direction. NDB there is on 4km.

Source: Custom resolution beacon pilot lost his Tu-154? (Polish)(English Translation)



Great tragedy, great mourning, great prayer

Sunday Catholic Magazine – Milena Kindziuk, Andrzej Tarwid

The plane crash at Smolensk shows how fragile human life is, how insignificant all quarrels are. As a nation we faced an examination. Why God? In Poland time stopped on 10 April 2010. The flags on state buildings were lowered to half-staff. In the capital people began coming spontaneously to the Presidential Palace. Warsaw’s inhabitants lit candles and put bunches of flowers. In Krakow the Sigismund bell rang again. Flags with palls were hung out everywhere. Believers gathered in churches to pray for the victims of the crash at Smolensk.

The Katyn land witnessed the unspeakable tragedy of Poland. 70 years ago another drama happened. The President of the Republic of Poland Lech Kaczynski, the First Lady and top government officials, including the last President-in-exile Ryszard Kaczorowski, deputy Parliament Speakers Krzysztof Putra and Jerzy Szmajdzinski, the deputy speaker of the Senate Krystyna Bochenek, the Field Bishop of the Polish Army General Tadeusz Ploski, the ombudsman Dr. Janusz Kochanowski, the National Bank Governor Slawomir Skrzypek, the President of Institute of National Remembrance Janusz Kurtyka lost their lives. There were also MPs, senators, representatives of the Katyn Families, veterans and their chaplains.

Irony of history?

Since the Smolensk tragedy pain and shock have been mixed with unbelief. Many ask the question ’why’. Christianity does not give this answer. We must ask, ‘why, God?’ ‘But God is silent’, says Fr Dariusz Kowalczyk, SJ, focusing our attention to the fact that the tragedy occurred during the Easter octave, on the eve of the Divine Mercy Feast.

‘So we come back to the events of Good Friday and Christ’s dramatic question: My God, my God, why have you deserted me? (see Mark 15:34) but remember that then we have the Easter Morning, showing what is important in life and giving hope, showing new life’, Fr Kowalczyk says. He is convinced that this was the case, too. These dramas constitute ‘blessed relativisation of many human problems’, show the proper hierarchy of values.

Reflecting on our national history we feel that we are more deeply rooted in our heritage, which we define by one word ‘homeland’. And we ask the question, ‘why have we, Poles, such a hard history?’ This delegation went to Katyn to pay homage to the Polish elite murdered in 1940. Now the most valuable people, experienced, holding the highest posts in our social-political life lost their lives there. The irony of history? Fate or a sign?

‘Undoubtedly, it is a sign for us’, says Fr Kowalczyk. ‘We face an exam, how we are going to cope with it? The atmosphere, which our society will create is important since it can help politicians to take further decisions. It is some direction.

Poland’s Primate Archbishop Henryk Muszynski expressed a similar opinion, ‘I am struck by a strange analogy to the death of the Poles murdered in Katyn 70 years ago. Those who lost their lives today were on the way to honour that massacre. This sacrifice is added to the innocent Polish officers murdered in 1940. The fact that those who lost their lives belonged to various political options in Poland is a deep challenge to unity – for the good of our Homeland in the internal, European and international dimension.

Understanding the incomprehensible

Prof. Jan Zaryn also thinks that it is God’s sign for Poles. ‘Today we cannot understand it yet but undoubtedly, we should think how to understand this tragedy. We must try to understand the sense of the incomprehensible since all things have their sense and must mean something.

Looking at this tragedy from the Christian point of view we can say that death is not the last word.

‘We believe that good can be born from this tragedy, both for those who died and for their relatives and for the whole Poland’, Fr Kowalczyk explains. ‘Although it is hard to speak about this today some good must be born from this drama in the end. We also hope that those who passed away stand before merciful God.’


Related Links:

TV100 (RU): Poles continue to look for scapegoats – (Original Link) (Polish)

Tidings Online: Hope for Poland

WSJ: Top Gay Tory to Fight Polish Homophobia

Telegraph: Barack Obama has managed to insult three close allies – all in one week

*** BBC:  Dead Kaczynski’s twin to run for Poland president ***


end

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